Archive for September, 2008

Have you heard about the Bradley affect? It is based on the experience of African-American Tom Bradley, who was running for the position of Governor of California in 1982, after having been Mayor of Los Angeles. Leading in the polls going into the election, he ended up losing by a swing of 6-8 points.

The difference between what people tell pollsters and how they actually vote - when it comes to the charged issue of race - is called the Bradley effect. Respondents want to seem open and sophisticated; being openly racist is not socially condoned. So some people may say they’ll vote for Obama, but when push comes to shove in the privacy of the voting booth, they just can’t vote for a minority.

But that was then and this is now.  Or is it?  Have we made any progress on the issue of racism?

If this latent racism still exists, it would suggest that Obama would need a generous lead in polls ahead of the election to actually achieve electoral victory. The one unique factor on Obama’s side is that he has energized the younger generation and the African-American community. The campaign succeeded by having a better state strategy and by having an amazing grass roots organization. Many people feel that current polls are biased against Obama because of the surge of new voters who may be missed in the survey populations.

See the Wikiepdia article on “The Bradley Effect.”

It just keeps getting nuttier.  Watch this video of Sarah Palin having a “blessing” or a “laying on of hands” to protect her from - get this - witchraft.

One less thing to worry about should she and McCain win the election and she has to step in as President, I guess.

And make sure you watch this Olberman story:

I’m just going to let Fareed speak for himself in these  quotes, and point you to the whole article.

“Can we now admit the obvious? Sarah Palin is utterly unqualified to be vice president. She is a feisty, charismatic politician who has done some good things in Alaska. But she has never spent a day thinking about any important national or international issue, and this is a hell of a time to start. The next administration is going to face a set of challenges unlike any in recent memory. There is an ongoing military operation in Iraq that still costs $10 billion a month, a war against the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan that is not going well and is not easily fixed. Iran, Russia and Venezuela present tough strategic challenges.

…

“Obviously these are very serious challenges and constraints. In these times, for John McCain to have chosen this person to be his running mate is fundamentally irresponsible. McCain says that he always puts country first. In this important case, it is simply not true.”

Read it in Newseek:  Palin is Ready?  Please.

Good news from the first Presidential debate.

Obama won by a pretty big margin.

We were all uncertain about whether we’d see a debate or a town hall meeting.  McCain’s increasingly erratic campaign called off and then on again the debate, even though his condition (agreement on a bailout bill) was not met.

After jetting in to Washington, injecting Presidential politics into a process that by all counts was moving forward with great speed and bipartisanship, and nearly derailing the process, McCain finally figured out that America was on to his cheap stunt, and wanted the debate to go forward.  So he reversed himself and showed up for the debate.

Maybe he should have stayed home.

Although it wasn’t a knock-out punch, Obama clearly bested McCain.  The especially bad news for McCain is that the night was supposed to be about foreign affairs, a topic on which he consistently bests Obama in the opinion of pundits and most Americans.  Because of the economic crisis, the first half of the debate focused on that area, and Obama was much more comfortable and in charge during this topic.

Why do I say that Obama won?

1. A CNN telephone poll of people who had watched the debate.  51% said Obama had done best, while only 38% said that McCain had.
2. A CBS online poll of that all important group - the uncommitted voter:  39% said that Obama had won to only 24% who thought that McCain had won (with 37% calling it a tie).

Here is Bloomberg’s take on the results of the night:  Obama Showed Leadership, McCain Proved Experience

Reform?  Clean Government?

I guess taking big gifts is an Alaskan tradition?!

Big bad Ted Stevens had his house expanded by Veco Corp, and is sitting in court now defending himself against charges of lying about it.  He represents the most established of all of the Alaskan “old boys network.”

But Palin has recently tried to position herself as someone who broke through all that, who stood up to a culture of corruption.  The clean living reformer.  I say recently, because her political history suggests that this positioning is a relatively recent incarnation.  In fact, in her early political career she was coddled and developed by the very network she later railed against.  But now this.

The revelation that Palin took over $25,000 in gifts, some very personal (travel, expensive individual gifts), and often coming from people with specific interests in the outcome of governmental process adds new tarnish to the claims of reform-mindedness made by Palin.

My mother always told me to be careful about announcing myself as too good or pure or honest - or anything, because if you’re going to claim it, you’d better be able to have every little thing you do exceed the claim.

The more I learn the more convinced I am that Palin is simply a horrible pick for McCain and the Republican party.  In every single press interview where she’s asked actual questions (and Fox News has disqualified itself from being considered news - heck, it’s barely entertainment) she stumbles and looks more and more like she is so far out of her league that it is laughable.

Read about Palin’s gift-taking from the Washington Post:  Palin Accepted $25,000 in Gifts, Alaska Records Show

The McCain-Palin campaign must be delighted that the financial crisis and McCain’s broad, if self-serving, rush into Washington has temporarily taken Palin out of the spotlight.  All the more so, because Sarah’s second true interview (after Gibson - Hannnity doesn’t count in oh so many ways) is airing in segments this week.  I’m sure the campaign felt like Katie Couric would be a better showcase for Palin, and Couric is a little more light-handed than Gibson was.   But she’s still a journalist, so she has to ask a few substantive questions.

Based on the little I’ve seen so far, Sarah once again proves that she’s just not ready with the background information or the ability to talk about substantive issues.  In Wednesday’s segment Palin couldn’t come up with examples of McCain’s push for more regulation.  That’s because there aren’t many - he’s been the crusader for deregulation for most of his career.  Now that the financial hardships have hit, he’s a reformed regulator.  Just like he wants to wrap himself in the garment of change.

McCain has attempted to get the first Presidential candidate debate moved back from Friday, 9/27.  Why do you think that is?

• His poll numbers have been sliding
• The debate is likely to shift its focus at least in part to the economy and away from foreign affairs - i.e. to an area where he is weaker from an area where he is stronger
• He is trying to show some leadership cred by running into Washington and crying “all hands on deck”
• He is afraid that the debate format is not good for him
• The more he delays the greater the chance that he can get some debates cancelled

My sneaking suspicion is that he also wants to “crowd out” the Vice Presidential debate, because of fears that Palin will fare poorly.

I’m encouraged that Palin’s negatives have headed higher.  I always figured that the intense scrutiny would eventually give people pause.  Those intense love affairs tend to end quickly.  Reality sets in.  The lights are coming back on.  And the American people are realizing who they’ve been dancing with for the past three weeks, and they’re not happy about it.

McCain has proven that he’s the master of political stunts.

The latest proof is the “suspension” of the campaign, and the flight back to Washington to “participate” in the financial bailout discussions.

The farce is pathetic.  McCain hasn’t been involved in the negotiations, which have been moving quickly and are reported to be nearing terms that can be agreed by all parties.

Barney Frank announced on Thursday morning that Congressional Democrats from both the House and Senate had agreed to an approach, and they were going to be meeting with Republicans soon.

He also expressed hope that American’s could ignore McCain’s distracting stunt.

Bloomberg Story:  Frank Says House, Senate Democrats Have Financial Rescue Deal

McCain, responding to falling polls, I mean the crisis facing financial markets, cancelled his scheduled appearance on Letterman, telling David he was “rushing to the airport” to fly to Washington.

Funny thing.

As Letterman was filming, Letterman found out he was prepping for an interview with Katie Couric, and showed tape of McCain getting some make-up.  He then showed the feed they were getting of that preparation - happening not far away from the taping of Letterman’s show.  David shouts at the feed asking Letterman if he needs a ride to the airport.

Letterman skewers McCain. “This is not the way a tested hero behaves. Somebody’s putting something in his Metamucil.”

Funny stuff.

Watch it here:

So the breaking news now: the firm owned by Rick Davis, McCain’s campaign manager, received payments from Freddie Mac as recently as last month.  Davis had claimed that the relationship ended three years ago.

The original Maverick?  Huh?!  An outsider?  Huh?!  The McCain-Palin campaign is being run by insider lobbyists, trying desperately to wrap themselves in a shawl of change, because they’ve figured out that’s what America is demanding.

Does McCain-Palin really believe that the public won’t see through their cynicism?  The candidate of change - after his party has controlled the presidency for the last eight years, after he was the most ardent of deregulation supporters (including oversight of Freddie Mac).

McCain admits he doesn’t know as much about the economy as he should.  Palin knows even less.  I wonder if she’s even had just one college-level class in economics given her school-jumping.  Now, apparently, McCain either didn’t know as much about his campaign manager as he should, or else he DID know, but was trying to keep that information out of the public’s view.

Check out the story in the Washington Post:  McCain Aide’s Firm Was Paid Recently.

The latest in the McCain campaign’s desperate attempt to shield its Vice Presidential pick Sarah Palin from press scrutiny and possible embarrassment? They tried today to eliminate all press coverage of any of her meetings with world leaders during their visit to the United Nations, including the “pool” television coverage. After the networks threatened to pull all coverage of the day, the campaign relented.

Excuse me, what was that about openness in government?

This would be amusing if it didn’t come on the heels of eight years of a manipulated press - have you EVER seen any images of caskets of brave soldiers arriving the US after the ultimate sacrifice in Iraq or Afghanistan? That’s because the Bush administration forbids it.

So, we have to ask again: What is the McCain camp so afraid of?

See Los Angeles Times article: Sarah Palin’s U.N. meetings begin with media flap.

Update:  Apparently I wasn’t the only one getting frustrated at the lack of press exposure to Palin.  CNN’s Campbell Brown calls out the McCain campaign for restricting press access to Sarah Palin, and calls the treatment sexist: